Today's edition
Bet on Red
Good morning. Vodacom just did the thing that usually makes shareholders wince: it cut the dividend. But it isn't the only one today asking you to trust a bigger payoff further down the line. Aspen is banking on a pill that won't prove itself until 2027, and a Gupta-era coal mine has swallowed years and billions before earning a cent back. Patience is the theme; the question is who's right to ask for it. Let's get into it.
MARKETS
PAINTING AFRICA RED
Vodacom is cutting its dividend to bet bigger on the rest of Africa
Cutting your dividend is usually a great way to spook investors. Vodacom has done exactly that, dropping its payout policy from at least 75% of profit to at least 65%, but this is a cut with a plan behind it. The group wants to keep more cash to pour into its fastest-growing markets, and in the same breath it raised its 2030 revenue goal to more than R300 billion, up from R200 billion. The timing is no accident. Vodacom has just taken control of Kenya's Safaricom and its M-Pesa money machine, and in Egypt revenue is now growing more than fifteen times faster than at home.
What's actually changing:
- Dividend policy trimmed to at least 65% of earnings, down from 75%.
- Safaricom stake lifted from 35% to 55%, handing Vodacom control of M-Pesa.
- Egypt's service revenue jumped 32.8% last quarter, versus 2.0% at home.
The bet is simple: give up some cash today to buy faster growth tomorrow. Now Egypt and Safaricom have to deliver.
PILL OF THE MONTH
Aspen has won the rights to make a once-a-month HIV-prevention pill
South Africa still records some of the world's highest HIV infection numbers, and the catch with prevention has always been the same: the medicine works, but only if people keep taking it, and a daily pill is an easy habit to break. Aspen Pharmacare has just won the right to make a drug built around that exact problem: a once-a-month tablet called alimatravir, taken before exposure to stop HIV taking hold. It works within an hour and forgives a dose up to a week late. The one catch is that the trial results proving it works aren't due until early 2027.
BAGEL BITE
What is the official national animal of Scotland?
A. Lion
B. Red Deer
C. Unicorn
DOING THE ROUNDS
The most notorious mine of the state-capture era is clawing its way back to life. Optimum, the coal mine at the heart of the Gupta scandal, has been rebuilt by new owner Liberty Coal with more than R3 billion, and should be near R4 billion by year-end. Its showpiece is a 100-metre digging machine refurbished for about R460 million, a fraction of the R2 billion a new one costs. It now employs around 2,000 people and ships up to 500,000 tonnes of coal a month to India, Singapore and Japan. Full story →
The fund that guards South Africa's civil-service pensions just watched most of its board walk out. In one week, the chair and five other directors resigned from the Public Investment Corporation, which manages more than R3.6 trillion in public money, leaving only five behind. Chair David Masondo said he was stepping down for the sake of stability. Finance Minister Godongwana dissolved what was left and will name an interim board, all while a watchdog probes the fund and its suspended chief executive. Full story →
If you rented your phone from Rentoza, its troubles are now official. The subscription company, started in 2017 by four friends and once running 14,000 active plans, entered voluntary business rescue on 1 July. Seven in ten of its customers used it to get a smartphone they couldn't otherwise afford. It blames a failure to raise funding, made worse by missed audits for 2024 and 2025, and its rescue practitioner must table a survival plan by 4 September. Full story →
Apple's next big thing might sit on your face, and its hardest problem isn't the technology. According to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, Apple plans to unveil its first smart glasses at its developer conference in June 2027, with a launch by year-end. The sticking point is privacy: Meta's camera glasses have been mocked as 'pervert glasses' for covert recording. Apple, which has built its brand on privacy for a decade, is reportedly skipping face recognition and may even ship a version that can't record at all. Full story →
WEATHER
BAGEL GAMES
Have you got what it takes to win today’s Wordle? Play here →
THE ANSWER
As for the Bagel Bite, the answer is: C. Unicorn
Scotland’s national animal is the unicorn, a legendary creature associated with purity, power, bravery and fierce independence. It has been connected to Scottish royalty for centuries and became an important symbol in the country’s royal heraldry. Scottish heraldic unicorns are shown wrapped in golden chains, which are believed to represent the power of Scotland’s kings to tame such a fierce and otherwise uncontrollable creature. Following the Union of the Crowns in 1603, one of the two unicorns supporting the Scottish Royal Arms was replaced by England’s lion to represent unity between the two countries. Today, unicorns can still be seen at historic Scottish landmarks, including St Giles’ Cathedral, Edinburgh Castle and the Palace of Holyroodhouse. National Unicorn Day is celebrated annually on 9 April.
That's Tuesday sorted. Enjoyed it? Forward it on — a friend can subscribe in a click. Written by the Business Bagel crew.
