Diesel is the fuel that moves everything else. It hauls maize to the mill, flour to the bakery and bread to the shop, which is why a diesel price lands on things that have nothing to do with diesel. South Africans have paid up to R9.32 a litre more for it since January, and the Central Energy Fund's 10 September figures pointed to another R1.65 to R1.98 when prices are adjusted on Wednesday 7 October.
That increase is not really a crude oil story. South Africa imports refined fuel, so the pump price follows what the world charges for diesel itself, and the gap between crude and diesel has widened because there is not enough refining capacity to go round. Brent crude did close above $100 a barrel earlier this month, its first time since July, but the refining margin has been climbing on its own account.
Where the diesel went
The shortage is a war story. Fighting involving Iran and Ukraine has cut exports from Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, three of the biggest suppliers in the market. Russia, the second largest diesel exporter in the world after the United States, banned diesel exports outright in July after Ukrainian drone attacks cut its refinery production, sending customers in Turkey and Brazil looking elsewhere. Middle East exports halved between March and August, to an average of 800,000 barrels a day, from a region that had been supplying about two-fifths of Europe's diesel imports.
Europe felt it first. Diesel futures there closed at an all-time high last week, more than twice what they cost at the start of 2026, after the disruption reached the Red Sea, where Saudi Arabia loads most of its diesel. Stocks at Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp, the continent's main refining and storage hub, were at their lowest level for the time of year on 10 September. In the United States, average retail diesel went above $6 a gallon for the first time on record this month, which is about R25.72 a litre.
What the 7 October number depends on
The International Energy Agency's warning is the part that reaches October. Refineries around the world are already stretched to capacity, it said this week, which leaves few available options to prevent a further tightening of supplies and higher prices in the coming months. American refineries ran at their highest rate in eight years in late August and still could not rebuild the shelf: US diesel stocks sit nearly 15% below their five-year average for this point in September.
The final number is not set. It moves with international fuel prices and the rand-dollar rate over the last days of September, and on that same 10 September data the rand, holding near R16 to the dollar, was taking 15 to 20 cents a litre off the increase. On the 10 September arithmetic, wholesale diesel would land close to the R31.18 a litre record it set in Gauteng in May.
