The country bought less oil in July, and that is most of the reason the trade surplus grew. SARS put the preliminary trade balance at R20.1 billion for the month, up from a revised R17.2 billion in June. Exports barely moved.
A trade surplus is simply what is left over when the value of what a country ships out is larger than the value of what it brings in. Exports rose 0.8% in July, to R194 billion, carried by passenger vehicles, manganese ore and coal. Imports fell by almost exactly the same proportion, to R173.8 billion, because the country brought in less refined petroleum, less crude oil and fewer smartphones.
Africa carried it, Asia did not
The surplus is not evenly earned. Trade with the rest of Africa produced a R31.97 billion surplus for the month, against R20.4 billion in June, mostly because imports from the continent dropped by nearly a third. Asia went the other way and deepened slightly, to a R30 billion deficit.
The neighbours matter more than the headline lets on. Take out Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia, the four countries South Africa shares a customs union with, and July's surplus falls to R9.1 billion. Those four accounted for R11.1 billion of it on their own.
The categories underneath moved in different directions. Machinery and electronics exports rose 18% month on month and mineral products 14%, while precious metals and stones fell 21%. On the import side, mineral products slumped 32%, which is the oil bill arriving lighter, but vehicles and transport equipment came in 28% higher.
The fuel bill that lands next
The figures were published hours after the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources confirmed that petrol and diesel rise sharply from Wednesday, which is the same import bill arriving from the other direction. Investec economist Lara Hodes, quoted by Business Day, expects import values to rise in the near term as higher energy prices feed through, with Brent averaging close to $90 a barrel in August.
For the year to July the country is R130.9 billion in surplus, against R100.6 billion at the same point in 2025. These are preliminary numbers and they move: June's surplus was first published at R17.8 billion and settled R0.5 billion lower once corrections came in. August is when the oil bill starts showing up in them.
