Almost every rand that moves in South Africa moves electronically, and somebody counts it. PayInc runs the national payments system, and each month it publishes an index of the real value of what went through it. In August that index rose 0.8%, after a July gain later revised up to 0.6%, and it sat 2.7% above where it was a year ago.
The index is about value, not traffic. Payment volumes actually eased off July's record, to 196.3 million transactions, though they were still about a tenth higher than last August.
Two months pointing the same way matters because of what came before them. Gross domestic product fell 0.2% in the second quarter, the first contraction since the third quarter of 2024, with the damage concentrated in trade, manufacturing and mining. Independent economist Elize Kruger reads July and August together as a sign the economy could return to growth this quarter, at a moderate pace.
What the other August readings say
They do not all agree with each other. The S&P Global purchasing managers' index, a monthly survey of how busy companies say they are, stayed just above the line that separates growth from contraction, at 50.5. Absa's version of the same survey fell for a fourth month running, to 45.8, which points the other way for factories. New vehicle sales were up more than a tenth on a year earlier.
Households have been steadier than the quarter's growth number suggested. Retail sales rose 3.4% in July against a year earlier, after barely moving in June, and Standard Bank economist Shireen Darmalingam says retail activity kept expanding through weak growth, high unemployment and the uncertainty coming out of the Iran conflict.
The petrol price is the part that has not happened yet
Kruger's warning is about October. Renewed tension in the Middle East has pushed oil back above $100 a barrel, and the Central Energy Fund's daily estimates point to 95-grade petrol in Gauteng rising by about R2.52 a litre and diesel by R2.62, on top of increases that already landed in September. PayInc's own read is that fuel costs and inflation have been eating into what households can spend.
Investment is the other soft spot, with spending on buildings, plant and equipment shrinking for a second quarter in a row. Kruger says uncertainty makes businesses cautious about investing, spending and hiring, which is the mechanism by which a fuel shock becomes a jobs problem.
The Reserve Bank's rate-setting committee meets on 23 September with inflation at 4.3%, well above the 3% it now aims for. IOL reports that most analysts expect a quarter-point increase; forward rate agreements were pricing the odds of one at 52%. Kruger's own line is that the committee faces a difficult decision.
