Global food prices have climbed to their highest level in almost four years. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's food price index, which tracks the prices of food traded between countries, rose another 1.5% in September to 136 points, its highest since November 2022. Wheat and maize both reached their highest levels in more than three years.
That is the headline. What it leaves out is that the index is still about 15% below its March 2022 peak, and that South Africa is in a better position than most.
Why South African prices have stayed calm
Food and non-alcoholic drink prices here rose just 1.1% in the year to August, according to Stats SA. A big reason is an exceptional farming season. South Africa's summer grain and oilseed harvest is forecast at a record 21.6 million tonnes, up 5% on last season, and that has kept local prices down even as world markets got dearer.
Not everything abroad is getting more expensive, either. The FAO's meat index fell in September on cheaper poultry and pork, and its dairy index is 19.1% lower than a year ago.
Wheat is where we're exposed
Wheat is the exception. South Africa's 2026-27 crop is estimated at 1.81 million tonnes, the smallest in eight years, so the country will need to import about 2 million tonnes this season, more than it grows.
The world is not short of wheat. The International Grains Council expects a global harvest of 820 million tonnes, well above the long-run level of about 790 million. The problem is getting it here. Attacks on Black Sea grain infrastructure have disrupted shipments and pushed up international wheat prices, and freight on some key routes has risen about 50%. For a country that relies on imports, that cost lands whatever the size of the world's harvest.
Timing works in businesses' favour
For food businesses, the other factor is timing. Higher world prices don't reach supermarket shelves overnight. Food processors typically buy raw materials on three- to six-month contracts, Reuters reports, so today's increases may only start showing up in production costs towards the end of this year or early next.
Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo expects local food inflation to stay moderate for the rest of 2026. The risk sits further out: a forecast El Niño drought could hit the crop being planted from this month, which only comes to market in mid-2027, and he expects food inflation to tick up next year.
That gives businesses time to check their supply contracts and plan around world prices while South Africa's head start lasts. Stats SA publishes September's inflation figure on Wednesday.
