It is shaping up to be a tense week on Wall Street. A batch of US employment data and corporate results is set to keep investors on edge over where the stock market heads next, after a stretch buffeted by geopolitical tension, uncertain interest-rate policy and big swings in heavyweight tech shares.
The jobs number and the Fed
The centrepiece is the July jobs report, due on Friday, 7 August. A Reuters poll expects it to show an increase of about 83,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Markets are watching closely because the Federal Reserve has become harder to read: it recently kept rates unchanged, but three of its 12 policymakers dissented in favour of a hike, and confusion followed a press conference by new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, who restated his intent to get inflation down to 2% without spelling out how. Fed-funds futures now imply a 64% chance of a rate increase at September's meeting, and core inflation on the measure the Fed tracks was running at 3.3% year on year in June. One investment chief warned that an unexpected heating up of labour conditions would almost unambiguously push the Fed toward a hike. As another strategist put it, the market has been held hostage to the price of oil and the yield on the 10-year Treasury, both of which have moved higher.
Earnings everywhere, and a SpaceX first
On top of the data, more than a quarter of the S&P 500 reports results, including Eli Lilly, AMD, Caterpillar, Palantir and Merck. The most closely watched debut comes on Tuesday from Elon Musk's SpaceX, filing its first quarterly report since going public; its shares have stumbled since a post-IPO surge, and the reaction could ripple through investors' appetite for risk. So far the earnings season has been strong, with S&P 500 profits on pace to rise about 29.3% from a year earlier on an adjusted basis.
With the index still up more than 9% in 2026 and sitting just 1.6% below its June record high, there is precious little cushion if the week disappoints. Traders will get their answer soon enough.
