A US plan that was meant to squeeze South African exporters appears to be having the opposite effect. Rather than shrinking, the value of South African goods sold to the United States has climbed since Washington imposed tariffs, according to new analysis making the rounds this week.
Exports up, not down
The value of South African exports to the United States has risen by 11% in nominal terms since the tariffs came into force in August 2025, based on data from Codera Analytics. For a measure designed to punish, that is an awkward result — and a reminder that trade flows rarely bend neatly to political intent.
The United States remains one of the largest single markets for South African products, spanning vehicles, metals, agricultural goods and more. While tariffs raise the cost of doing business, factors such as currency movements, commodity prices and the simple fact that some South African goods are hard to substitute have helped keep demand resilient.
Why the squeeze isn't biting
Part of the explanation lies in what South Africa sells. Where exports are priced in dollars and tied to global commodity cycles, a rising price can lift the total value of shipments even if volumes are flat or softer. Add a competitive exchange rate into the mix, and the headline export figure can keep climbing despite the tariff drag.
The findings will fuel an ongoing debate about how much leverage tariffs really give Washington over trading partners, and whether the measures end up hurting American buyers as much as the exporters they target. For South African producers, the data offers cautious encouragement — though trade tensions remain a live risk, and a stronger rand or a commodity-price pullback could quickly change the picture.
For now, the early evidence suggests the tariffs have not landed the blow that was intended.
Compiled by Business Bagel from reporting by BusinessTech and Daily Investor, citing Codera Analytics.
