Standard Bank has told investors that the fallout from conflict in the Middle East has left its clients less willing to transact, invest and borrow over the past five months — yet Africa's largest bank by assets insists the squeeze on confidence will prove temporary.
In a voluntary trading update covering the five months to 31 May 2026, released ahead of its closed period, the group said the operating environment had become "progressively more complex" as geopolitical tension weighed on economic activity across its markets.
Earnings cool, but stay on track
Earnings growth moderated from the 12% the bank reported for the first quarter, though management described the overall showing as resilient and credited the lender's scale and diversification. Its corporate and investment banking arm — long the group's crown jewel — drove balance-sheet growth alongside the business and commercial banking unit, while the personal and private banking division grew more modestly as home loans ticked up at low single digits.
Crucially for shareholders, Standard Bank left its guidance for the year to 31 December 2026 unchanged, saying it would revisit the numbers at its interim results. Over the medium term, the group is still targeting headline earnings per share growth of between 8% and 12% by 2028.
Betting on a second-half rebound
"Should the recent positive developments hold, we would expect confidence and momentum to return in the second half of the year," the bank said, a nod to tentative signs that tensions in the Middle East may be easing.
There were bright spots beneath the headline caution. Credit impairment charges fell compared with a year earlier — even as the bank topped up forward-looking provisions to reflect a darker macroeconomic outlook — helping to push its credit loss ratio lower. The insurance and asset management business carried its 2025 momentum into the new year, supported by stronger life-risk experience and growing assets under management in South Africa and Nigeria.
The bank also struck a relatively upbeat note on home conditions, pointing to reform momentum, healthier state finances and strong terms of trade as supports for the South African economy, even as the inflation outlook deteriorated.
Investors will get the full picture when Standard Bank reports results for the six months to 30 June 2026 on 13 August.
