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# South Africa's economy is suddenly 4.9% bigger, and the government owes exactly as much as it did
- URL: https://www.businessbagel.com/south-africas-economy-is-suddenly-4-9-bigger-and-the-government-owes-exactly-as-much-as-it-did/
- Published: 2026-11-03T03:00:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-03T02:59:59.000Z
- Description: Stats SA has re-measured the economy and found more of it, some of it in illegal mines, which makes the national debt look lighter without shrinking a single rand of it.
- Author: Christian Maidman
- Tags: Economy, Business Bagel News

Some of South Africa's economy happens where the official surveys never reach, and Stats SA has just gone looking for more of it. Its latest recount, released on 29 October, found an economy 4.9% bigger than the one it had been publishing.

The exercise is called rebasing, and it is supposed to happen about every five years: the agency picks a newer reference year, refreshes its data and fixes the methods that were missing things. This round moved the reference year from 2015 to 2022, passing over 2020 because the pandemic made it a poor year to measure anything against. On the new count, the 2022 economy was worth R6.99 trillion.

## Illegal mining, now on the books

Mining moved the most, revised up by 12.5%, and Stats SA's release gives one reason for it: "the inclusion and better coverage of illegal mining". Finance, property and business services came second, mostly because Stats SA changed how it values the homes people own and live in. Reuters and EWN reported other corners now being counted, including electricity that households and businesses generate for themselves and e-hailing trips. The part of the economy that surveys miss, which Stats SA calls the non-observed economy, now makes up 8.7% of the total.

## Why the debt ratio falls and the debt does not

Government debt is usually judged against the size of the economy, so a bigger economy makes the same debt look lighter. Johann Els, chief economist at PSG, reckons the ratio for this financial year could fall from 78.2% to about 74.5%. That matters to the ratings agencies, which Bloomberg reports are watching South Africa's debt position as they weigh further upgrades. It matters less to the actual bill, Els told EWN, because the debt itself and the interest paid on it stay the same.

Finance minister Enoch Godongwana sees an opening. "I can confirm that, it definitely gives us headroom," he [told Bloomberg](https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/economy/godongwana-says-sas-gdp-lift-creates-fiscal-headroom/?ref=businessbagel.com) on Friday evening, on the side of a Kgalema Motlanthe Foundation forum. He was cooler on collecting tax from the newly counted parts of the economy, illegal mining included: "It's going to be a task, particularly on the informal side, a hell of a task." Nor does he expect it to free money for building, because the trouble with infrastructure, he said, "is the ability to spend".

The sceptics have the growth figures on their side. The recount also cut the growth rate it had published for 2025, from 1.1% to 0.9%. Raymond Parsons, an economist at North-West University's business school, put it simply: "the absolute metrics do not change and remain a valid reality".

Godongwana says his team still has to work out what the revision means for revenue and the fiscal numbers. Until it does, the main thing the recount has shrunk is a percentage.