Sasol has given the market an early read on its year, and at first glance it looks like a blockbuster. In a trading statement for the 12 months to June, the fuels and chemicals group said earnings per share should land between R17.50 and R19.50, up 65% to 84% on the R10.60 it reported a year earlier. For a company that spent much of the past two years apologising for writedowns and operational stumbles, a near-doubling of profit is the kind of headline shareholders have been waiting for.
Look one line down, though, and the picture cools. Headline earnings per share — the cleaned-up measure South African investors actually watch, because it strips out one-off items — is guided to rise just 2% to 14%, to between R36 and R40. Adjusted operating cash earnings are seen at R58 billion to R62 billion, up 12% to 20%. The gap between the two profit figures is the whole story.
What actually moved the needle
Sasol was clear about where the lift came from, and most of it was external. Sales volumes rose 4% on better production, the average Brent crude price was 7% higher, and refining margins more than doubled as fuel differentials improved. On top of that, impairments were smaller than last year — R16.8 billion before tax, against R20.7 billion. The impairments themselves were spread across the business: a further R7.7 billion written off at the Secunda liquid-fuels unit, R3.7 billion on polyethylene and R3.9 billion in Mozambique. A friendlier oil-and-rand backdrop and last year's writedowns not repeating, in other words, did more work than any transformation of the underlying business. Some of that tailwind was offset by a 7% stronger rand and the absence of a R4.3 billion Transnet settlement banked the year before.
The number to watch on 1 September
This is a trading statement, not the results, and the guidance is unaudited. The real test comes on 1 September, when Sasol presents its full 2026 figures and chief executive Simon Baloyi and finance chief Walt Bruns take questions. The market will be looking past the eye-catching statutory jump to whether the operational gains can hold once the oil price stops flattering the numbers. For now, Sasol has flagged a big swing three weeks early, and left the more interesting question open.
