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# Sasol's profit is about to leap — but not the number that counts most
- URL: https://www.businessbagel.com/sasols-profit-is-about-to-leap-but-not-the-number-that-counts-most/
- Published: 2026-08-07T02:15:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-07T02:15:00.000Z
- Description: A fresh trading statement points to statutory earnings nearly doubling, yet the cleaned-up figure investors actually track barely moves — and a friendlier oil price, not a turnaround, did the lifting.
- Author: Christian Maidman
- Tags: Companies, Business Bagel News

Sasol has given the market an early read on its year, and at first glance it looks like a blockbuster. In a trading statement for the 12 months to June, the fuels and chemicals group said earnings per share should land between R17.50 and R19.50, up 65% to 84% on the R10.60 it reported a year earlier. For a company that spent much of the past two years apologising for writedowns and operational stumbles, a near-doubling of profit is the kind of headline shareholders have been waiting for.

Look one line down, though, and the picture cools. Headline earnings per share — the cleaned-up measure South African investors actually watch, because it strips out one-off items — is guided to rise just 2% to 14%, to between R36 and R40\. Adjusted operating cash earnings are seen at R58 billion to R62 billion, up 12% to 20%. The gap between the two profit figures is the whole story.

## What actually moved the needle

Sasol was clear about where the lift came from, and most of it was external. Sales volumes rose 4% on better production, the average Brent crude price was 7% higher, and refining margins more than doubled as fuel differentials improved. On top of that, impairments were smaller than last year — R16.8 billion before tax, against R20.7 billion. The impairments themselves were spread across the business: a further R7.7 billion written off at the Secunda liquid-fuels unit, R3.7 billion on polyethylene and R3.9 billion in Mozambique. A friendlier oil-and-rand backdrop and last year's writedowns not repeating, in other words, did more work than any transformation of the underlying business. Some of that tailwind was offset by a 7% stronger rand and the absence of a R4.3 billion Transnet settlement banked the year before.

## The number to watch on 1 September

This is a trading statement, not the results, and the guidance is unaudited. The real test comes on 1 September, when Sasol presents its full 2026 figures and chief executive Simon Baloyi and finance chief Walt Bruns take questions. The market will be looking past the eye-catching statutory jump to whether the operational gains can hold once the oil price stops flattering the numbers. For now, Sasol has flagged a big swing three weeks early, and left the more interesting question open.