Few shares have ridden the Middle East's turmoil quite like Sasol, and few have fallen as fast now that peace is on the table. The petrochemical and energy group's stock has shed about 20% in a matter of days, yet some analysts reckon the sell-off has opened an attractive door for patient investors.
From R242 to R175
Sasol slid from a high of R242 last week to around R195 early on Monday, before dropping further to roughly R175.43 by Thursday as US President Donald Trump reportedly signed a peace agreement with Iran and Brent crude retreated to about $77 a barrel. The pullback follows a remarkable rally that had lifted the share from below R60 in April 2025 to its recent peak, a climb driven partly by the war-time oil premium and partly by genuinely improving operations at the company.
The bull case
Adrian Hammond, head of resources research at SBG Securities, says Sasol remains one of his highest-conviction ideas despite the run-up. “We have a high-conviction valuation of about R450 a share,” he told Moneyweb, while acknowledging the price could slip further if oil keeps falling. That, he argues, is rather the point. “Any weakness in the share price could provide investors with an attractive entry point.”
Beyond the oil price, the investment case rests on Sasol's improving balance sheet. The group has prioritised cutting debt and is generating strong free cash flow, and Hammond believes it could move into a net cash position within three years, a shift that would also revive the prospect of dividends. For now, though, Sasol's fortunes remain tightly bound to a barrel of crude, and a calmer Middle East means a cheaper one.
