Sasol issued a trading statement on Wednesday afternoon warning that headline earnings per share for the year to June will fall between 15% and 21% from prior comparable. The midpoint — down 18% — is roughly in line with where consensus had drifted in the past month, but well below the level the share was priced at in February.
The stock closed 6.2% lower on the day. The bond — the 2027s — barely moved.
What's driving it
- Chemical prices. US ethylene and Asian polypropylene both averaged 12–14% below last year's prints.
- Rand strength. The currency averaged R18.40 to the dollar over the period, against R18.95 in the comparable. Sasol earns most of its revenue in dollars.
- Secunda still Secunda. Production at the synfuels operation came in at the bottom of guidance.
What's not driving it
Crude prices held up; Brent averaged $81.30 versus a year-ago $79.40. The fuels business is fine.
What it means
The interim is on 25 August. The market is now braced for it; the surprise risk is to the upside if there's a one-line update on the Secunda turnaround. Don't bet on it.
The trading statement number is the floor, not the forecast. Treat it that way.
