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# Sasol guides earnings down 18%.
- URL: https://www.businessbagel.com/sasol-guides-earnings-down-18/
- Published: 2026-05-18T11:05:01.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-10T07:52:52.000Z
- Description: Sasol warned full-year headline earnings will fall 15–21%. The shares dropped 6.2%; the bonds barely moved. What's driving the guidance, and what the two markets are telling you.
- Author: Philip Ziegler
- Tags: Companies

Sasol issued a trading statement on Wednesday afternoon warning that headline earnings per share for the year to June will fall between 15% and 21% from prior comparable. The midpoint — down 18% — is roughly in line with where consensus had drifted in the past month, but well below the level the share was priced at in February.

The stock closed 6.2% lower on the day. The bond — the 2027s — barely moved.

**What's driving it**

1. **Chemical prices.** US ethylene and Asian polypropylene both averaged 12–14% below last year's prints.
2. **Rand strength.** The currency averaged R18.40 to the dollar over the period, against R18.95 in the comparable. Sasol earns most of its revenue in dollars.
3. **Secunda still Secunda.** Production at the synfuels operation came in at the bottom of guidance.

**What's not driving it**

Crude prices held up; Brent averaged $81.30 versus a year-ago $79.40\. The fuels business is fine.

**What it means**

The interim is on 25 August. The market is now braced for it; the surprise risk is to the upside if there's a one-line update on the Secunda turnaround. Don't bet on it.

*The trading statement number is the floor, not the forecast. Treat it that way.*