South Africa is moving to end its voluntary approach to emergency fuel stocks. The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources has published its draft Strategic Petroleum Stock Policy, 2026, for public comment — and for the first time it would place a legal obligation on private oil companies to hold reserves alongside the state.
The draft, whose publication Cabinet approved on 3 July, sets out a dual model: government-held crude oil equal to 90 days of net imports, stored mainly at the state-owned Saldanha Bay facility, plus a mandatory 14 days of refined product — diesel, petrol and jet fuel — held by licensed manufacturers and wholesalers. When Cabinet announced the policy, Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni described a mixed model in which the South African National Petroleum Company (SANPC) holds the equivalent of 60 days of net imports, rising to 90 days over the long term.
R1bnEstimated daily GDP cost of total fuel unavailabilitySource: draft Strategic Petroleum Stock Policy14 daysRefined stock private firms would have to hold
Why the state says it cannot wait
The department's case rests on how exposed the country has become. The conversion of the Sapref and Engen refineries into import terminals has turned South Africa from a crude-importing nation into a finished-product importer, stripping out the buffer that domestic refining used to provide. Imports take a minimum of 21 days and as long as 42 days to reach South African ports, with another 10 to 14 days spent offloading, refining and hauling fuel to the inland market.
Conservatively, the department estimates, a national unavailability of liquid fuels would cost the economy about R1 billion a day in GDP. Governance and funding of the new system would sit with SANPC, the state oil company formed by the 2025 merger of the Strategic Fuel Fund, PetroSA and iGas.
Three levels, then rationing
The draft also sets out when the minister may release stock. A Level 1 supply alert would be triggered by the loss of 20% of national refined product supply for more than 14 days, prompting voluntary stock-sharing and a SANPC readiness audit. Level 2 — a 40% loss, with commercial mandatory stocks exhausted — would allow a restricted drawdown for essential services and key economic hubs. Level 3, a national emergency declared by the minister after a severe global shock affecting more than half of supply, would mean a mass release and fuel rationing. A separate economic trigger kicks in if prices reach $145 a barrel, allowing a strategic sale by competitive auction.
What it means
Holding stock is expensive, and the draft is explicit that the state cannot carry the cost alone. That means the 14-day obligation will land on fuel wholesalers' balance sheets, and the industry will argue about who ultimately pays — which, in a regulated fuel-price system, tends to mean motorists.
The comment period is where that fight will play out. For business owners, the more immediate signal is that government is now formally planning for a scenario in which South Africa runs short of diesel, and has written down what rationing would look like.
