South Africa's trade books are looking healthier than they have in years. The country recorded a current account surplus of 2.4% of GDP in the first quarter of 2026 — the largest in more than four years — according to data released by the South African Reserve Bank on Thursday.
In rand terms, the surplus ballooned to R190.7 billion (about $11.5 billion) for January to March, a dramatic jump from the R50.2 billion recorded in the final quarter of 2025, when the surplus sat at just 0.6% of GDP.
Gold does the heavy lifting
The star of the show was gold. With bullion prices elevated and volumes up, increased net gold exports drove much of the improvement. The trade surplus widened to R437.9 billion in the first quarter, up from R282.2 billion in the previous three months.
The numbers moved in South Africa's favour on both sides of the ledger. The value of exports of goods and services rose by R78.3 billion on higher prices and volumes, while the import bill shrank by R96.8 billion as both prices and volumes declined, the Reserve Bank said.
Can it last?
The current account measures the country's transactions with the rest of the world — trade in goods and services, plus income flows — and a surplus this size gives the rand and the broader economy welcome support at a time when global conditions are anything but calm.
Economists are already cautioning that the second quarter may not look as rosy. Investec economist Lara Hodes expects the trade surplus to narrow in Q2, with the war in the Middle East pushing oil prices higher in April and May and weighing on the value of imports.
Still, for an economy that has spent much of the past few years on the back foot, a four-year-best external position — powered by the very mining sector so often written off — is a result worth savouring. It follows hot on the heels of first-quarter GDP growth that beat forecasts, adding to a small but growing pile of better-than-expected economic news for 2026.
Compiled by Business Bagel from reporting by CNBC Africa (Reuters).
