Copper ore is not the same all the way down. When a mine moves into rock that holds less metal, the same digging produces less copper, and BHP had planned for exactly that in the three months to September. Add scheduled maintenance, severe weather in Chile, stops for safety and a conveyor failure at Carrapateena, and its copper output fell 19%, to 401,000 tonnes.
Two people died at BHP operations in the quarter, at Escondida and at Peak Downs. "No loss of life is acceptable," the company said in its quarterly report, adding that investigations are under way.
Why the forecast stayed put
BHP still expects to produce between 1.65 million and 1.8 million tonnes of copper in its 2027 financial year. Four quarters like this one would land just short of the bottom of that range, so the rest of the year has to run better than this one did.
Escondida in Chile, counted for the whole mine rather than BHP's share of it, produced 23% less than a year earlier. BHP kept that mine's forecast at 1 million to 1.1 million tonnes for the year. Copper South Australia, home of the broken conveyor, was down 16%.
Selling it got easier, at least. Copper prices were around 50% higher than a year ago, Business Day reports, which props up earnings even when the tonnes fall.
Iron ore had a record quarter
BHP's iron ore output rose 4% to 66 million tonnes, with records at both the Western Australian mines and the port. Both of its coal businesses, BMA and NSW Energy Coal, also produced more than in the same quarter last year.
The longer bet is still copper. Chief executive Brandon Craig pointed to industrialisation in China and India and to what BHP calls unprecedented investment in data centres, which it says strengthens the long-term case for the metal. BHP has approved US$0.8 billion of early funding at Escondida to get a new processing plant ready to build. It also wants Copper South Australia producing about 500,000 tonnes a year by 2035.
Then there is potash, a fertiliser ingredient. Jansen, the potash project that adds a new commodity to BHP's list, is 87% complete and due to start producing in mid-2027. BHP says it will set out more of its strategy in November.
