A conflict thousands of kilometres from South Africa is turning up in an unexpected place: half-empty domestic flights. FlySafair, the low-cost airline, told a media roundtable this week that its domestic travel demand has dropped by about 14% since the US-Iran war began in February. Where the airline would normally carry between 850,000 and 900,000 passengers a month, it is currently running closer to 750,000 to 800,000.
It's the fuel, not fear
The cause is not nervous flyers; it is the fuel bill. Jet fuel makes up 50% to 55% of an airline's operating costs, which leaves carriers badly exposed when oil prices spike. South Africa imports about 75% of its jet fuel, with 70% of that coming through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf shipping lane the conflict disrupted. When war broke out, the price FlySafair paid jumped from R11.40 a litre to more than R30 at its peak, before easing back to about R18. To avoid raising fares across the board, the airline added a clearly labelled, temporary fuel surcharge.
Passengers priced out
Chief marketing officer Kirby Gordon summed up the problem in economic terms: customers still want to travel, "but they just can't afford it." He insisted there is "absolutely no hidden margin" in the surcharge, and that the airline is actually running it at a loss for now. The pain does not stay with the airline, either. Fewer people flying means fewer hotel nights, car rentals and restaurant bookings across a tourism industry that leans on visitors.
Some relief in the tank
There is a brighter note. Jet fuel has already retreated from its peak, and the average surcharge had fallen from around R692 to about R311 by late July, some 40% off the top. FlySafair frames the fee as temporary and says it will keep trimming it as prices settle. Whether South Africans return to the skies in their old numbers now rests on something no airline controls: how long the oil price stays calm.
